Involving all countries in the Middle East with as prime targets the three key countries Iran, Israel and Pakistan
2016 started with severed ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a new low in relations between the two countries confirming a new era, changing the proxy war in Iraq, Syria and Yemen into one on each other soil.
Disgruntled Saudis and Iranians support ISIS that has sworn to take down the leadership
There will be significant terrorist attacks. The attacks will be spectacular maybe multiple.
Al Qaeda's ISIS is to sow division and discord inside their enemies, exploit and reinforce the divides in society, Muslim vs. non-Muslim, Migrant versus Native. Cause public outrage and opposition from local extremist movements by inducing fear in civilian populations
Presence and Fear the New Normal
Long term Al Qaeda and more recent ISIS affiliates, made terror attacks the new normal but the right analysis of the threat is....
International Terrorism Acts
.... not limited to Islamic terrorism and the nexus Transnational Organised Crime. (The Shadow Where Crime Becomes Ideology)
Elected officials show a lack in political will and capabilities to put a stop to it, thus accepting that the sense of Presence and Fear is the new normal. This leaves room for public outrage and creates a gap that local extremist are using to their advantage. (Active spy networks the prelude to (civil) wars)
The Greater Khorasan, North Africa, Chechnya and the Balkan, launchpads for terror networks
The intervention in local conflicts caused regional and international launchpads for attacks. Embedded al Qaeda affiliates support the global spread of the Salafist and Wahhabi ideology within its enemies.
All South and Southeast Asian countries are infected by al Qaeda affiliates. Their support is originating from Kashmir and from longstanding AQAP connections in Yemen.
The al Qaeda ISIS affiliates in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia are largely underestimated.
The regional threat from these al Qaeda - ISIS groups has risen exponentially
Africa is a key continent for terror networks. It is a large center of "recruitment" for the Al Qaida terror networks.
Even though the US remains a favorite target in the west, Europe is the weakest link. The pressure on al Qaeda and ISIS in North Africa, Chechnya and the Balkan is increased and Europe is attacked from there
Al Qaeda has silently invested significantly into building an ideological base in weak African and Asian communities.
Building a social structure and capacity for impoverished communities with free education, medical and food aid.
Its support and presence trough affiliates in Africa and Asia has since 2009 quadrupled. Its main targets still are Africa's 'Magnificent 5' ; Uganda, Kenya. Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi
The war against the ISIS caliphate has degraded ISIS's possibilities to keep territory in Syria and Iraq.
When terror groups are forced out and no longer fight for territory, that frees resources to expand and widen their scope on the globe.
ISIS is expanding its fighting and training in Africa and Asia
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