An existentialist threat to Europe and the US

The threat toward the 'West' has shifted from the Middle East to North Africa, in particular Kenya and the Horn of Africa. Disaffected Kenyans, together with al Shabaab and Boko Haram are uniting under one banner as did Middle Eastern terrorist groups unite under the flag of al-Qaeda (the base)

Brexit will change the political violence map and a resurgent IRA never went away

Counter Terrorism Proposal

A blow upon the 'Great Satan'-The arena of conflict shifting to Europe-ISIS and al Qaeda: No longer the terrorist supremo-Al Shabaab and Boko Haram the terrorist threat posed to the West-State sponsored, Ideological and criminally driven-Sino-Russian, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia-The academics carousel-Stopping history repeating itself-No dialogue or 'peace processes' but a rapid response-Game theorists knowledge gap-Brexit resurgent IRA never went away-The greater threat-Current focus


Counter Terrorism Proposal

Our investigations and assets on the ground indicate individuals and organizations funding Boko Haram (BH) and al-Shabaab (AS) are the same circle of wealthy Islamist extremists

Disaffected Kenyans, together with al Shabaab and Boko Haram are uniting under one banner as did Middle Eastern terrorist groups unite under the flag of al-Qaeda (the base)

They wish to inflict harm and visit terrorist atrocities upon the West, particularly Northern Europe. Our intention is to concentrate on those bankrolling BH and AS and how to have them taken out of the equation.

A blow upon the 'Great Satan'

It appears that everyone is heading for the Horn of Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and the region generally. That will evolve into an entrenched conflict. With the emergence great powers and their open declaration that they are here to stay greater funds are being released for the private sector as governments appear to withdraw from the region except for China.

As in Iraq, Libya, Syria and now Africa, there will be a blow-back and the consensus amongst us is that AS and BH will wage an asymmetric guerilla war in Europe just as AQ, IS are doing.

A long-held goal for these groups is the capture and kidnapping of Western citizens, American citizens are considered higher value. This is due to the inevitable media coverage when these hostage taking scenarios arise and the idea of inflicting a blow upon the 'Great Satan.'


a blow at the great satan

The arena of conflict shifting to Europe

That which is not been considered, revalued or game-theorised is the inevitable shifting of the arena of conflict to Europe which is a soft target area due to the density of heavily populated cities with jungles of glass and concrete which acts as ready made in situ shrapnel. Terrorists have learned exponentially and the comparative lull in terrorist atrocities in Europe should not be seen as 'game over.'

We must raise the concern (held quietly by western security services) that probabilities exist for various Western European cities to become active targets once again. After fighting in Syria European and naturalised Europeans of ISIS have not gone away. They have merely returned quietly and integrated as productive members of the society. Sleeper cells, battle hardened, with bomb-making skills and weapons expertise.

We in HUMINT quite reasonably raise awareness but the next steps lie within the hands of the decision-makers to set in motion, protective and proactive measures by preparing and thus preventing harm to Europe and American citizens including US assets and infrastructure within Europe.

Migrants Europe

A recipe for radicalisation, low hanging fruit for the terrorist recruiter

Ethnic Somali international migrant population is 250,000 in Europe. Somalis are among the least educated and least integrated immigrants groups and the highest unemployment rate. Somali pupils have the lowest participation level in secondary education. The majority of Somali migrants in the European diaspora arrived as refugees and asylum seekers. Many obtained either permanent residence or citizenship.

'Sometimes the best hiding place is in plain sight'


ISIS and al Qaeda: No longer the terrorist supremo

The violent non-state actor in this scenario is no longer ISIS, Al-Qaeda or the other Sunni minority groups that aspire to assume the mantle of terrorist supremo. They have become al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. In many ways they pose a greater threat than the likes of ISIS due to their eagerness to inflict violence upon Western targets to a greater degree, verging on the pathological. They have learned through the etiology of terrorism, the greater the violence and atrocity, the greater resounding media attention a kind of shock and awe, terrorist style.

Disaffected Kenyans, together with al Shabaab and Boko Haram are uniting under one banner as did Middle Eastern terrorist groups unite under the flag of al-Qaeda (the base)

Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram the terrorist threat posed to the West

Having witnessed the paralysis that consumed the West due to levels of cruelty played out on TV screens, social media channels and first hand witness accounts these two groups, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram will be used as actors representing the terrorist threat posed to the West, Europe and the USA. The concern within the Military Intelligence and Security Services (Militaire Inlichtingen-en Veiligheidsdienst of the Netherlands) are French terrorist style attacks on Dutch soil. These would be carried out by ethnic Moroccans (who are present in large numbers in Holland). They have declared their allegiance to ISIS through the kidnapping and slaughter of young European women. This suggests the involvement of Ansaru, a splinter faction of Boko Haram that specialises in kidnapping.

State sponsored, Ideological and criminally driven

However, as was the case with ISIS, al-Qaida and its affiliates, it must be noted from the outset, that other states are involved using the same modus operandi observed in the MENA region for their own ulterior motives whether it be geopolitical strategy, financial advantage or traditional desire to install the ideology of choice. Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram, have both enlisted black African minorities within the recent influx of migrants to Europe. It is reckless of European nations not to recognise this. The Achilles Heel of Europe is of its own making, the Schengen Agreement that facilitates cross border free movement without security checks.

Migrants storm beach Cadiz Spain

Sino-Russian, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia

It is a very delicate truth that a Sino-Russian presence exists in the region. Another is that because the religion of choice, yet again, is fundamentalist Islam, ergo, those states that possess undue wealth and influence in the Horn of Africa are the proselytisers from the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. These have concealed themselves and their motives behind a facade of charitable networks and mosque building. A tried and trusted method that was successfully implemented within Latin America by another Islamist entity Hezbollah. Iran will inevitably enter the fray in the Horn of Africa openly and not clandestinely as they are now doing. 

concealed themselves and their motives behind a façade of charitable networks and mosque building - Mosque in Benin

The academics carousel

Academics with no experience of actual violence cannot grasp the acts committed or how violence influences behaviour. Academics merely regurgitate one another's writings. A sort of academic literary cannibalism whereby they exist in a quagmire of torpor and republish one another's findings like a demented publishers carousel to retain and support one another through retaining employment and tenure. With this in mind, and within this context of African terrorist groups, academics are of no use in preventing terrorist acts but can draw up theories after-hand.

academics carousel

Stopping history repeating itself

The concept of how radicalisation occurs has been explored in so many ways , that nothing new comes into the debate.

This proposal is kept deliberately short, focused and concise to offer a means of stopping history repeating itself. That is to say, pre-emptive action whether by assassination of those preparing attacks as Israel does (as long as they are caught red handed), caught in the act.

But the most effective is cutting off the funding route, the supply of money which is currently being utilised as an advanced means of hawala banking.

No dialogue or 'peace processes' but a rapid response 

Although shaped by years of academic study and research this is written from a practitioner's point of view. It does not offer dialogue or 'peace processes' but rather a rapid response solution to extinguish via a violent antidote and put to death a poisonous ideology that has become an hybrid of greed, profit and power masquerading as a religion. We need to cut off their money supply and obviously funding is required for those of us that are able to do this. HUMINT on the ground can easily pave the way and enter the fray to eliminate the threat scenario.

Solution

Game theorists knowledge gap

Armed group ideology and its behaviour has been examined and debated relatively recently when it comes to overthrowing governments (Yemen) or usurping dictators (Gadaffi) and blatant electoral fraud (Zimbabwe). That which has not been observed under the game theorists optics are the targeting of civilians exposing a knowledge gap that can be filled using the lenses of threat perceptions and exclusionary ideologies versus inclusive ideologies. And therein lies the greatest weakness for Europe and its citizens. The certain knowledge that European citizens will be kidnapped, held hostage and the inevitability of the shaven head and orange jumpsuits that have conditioned the European psyche to be repulsed by the very sight of a shaven head and orange jumpsuit.

The greater threat

Revolutionary armed gangs with exclusive ideologies target civilian groups to a greater degree than those that are hybrids of organised crime gangs and terrorists, part time terrorists but full time criminals such as the 'ndrangheta who supplied passports to the Madrid al-Qaeda cell in exchange for heroin and cocaine. Who then inflicted the Madrid train bombings leading to Spain withdrawing from Iraq. They consider themselves to have a greater degree of understanding than 'inclusive' groups engaging in 'legitimate' targeting. This makes them a greater threat because they seek to legitimise civilian fatalities 'for the greater good' or because it helps them to reach their goals quicker.

Terror nexus crime money handshake

Our current focus

February 02 2019

ISIL recruits Chinese with fake Turkish passports from Istanbul

Links with UK active. Financed via cocaine

Money transfers accordingly with Hawala banking method. Network active and preparing acts. British contingent in primarily West London. Kenya and Horn of Africa.

Car Bomb Londonderry -IRA

High value heads of OCG are our cup of tea

We can and are very effective in eliminating leadership of crime gangs and terrorism groups. Boko Haram are inflicting severe casualties on a daily basis and Brexit will change the political violence map and a resurgent IRA never went away, just lay low. The january 2019 bombing in Londonderry outside a courthouse was the Real IRA's of issuing a gentle reminder, 'we are still here and we never went away.'

Organised Crime Nexus Terrorism Arms Trade

HUMINT Organized Crime nexus Terrorism

Our officers have key assets infiltrated within Organized Crime Groups in terrorism groups Al Qaeda affiliates, AQIS, Al Shabab, Boko Haram, Hezbollah and FARC etc. At this moment HUMINT declines to comment further on assets placed within Irish Republican groups.

TRAVEL PATTERNS, from and via Albania to Western Europe

The Netherlands are facing a major threat

Not just from OCG's but the new wave of jihadis. Especially Moroccans and third tier returning/coming to NL from MENA using Turkish passports, the nexus of Organised Crime and Terrorism has established itself in Europe. (United States increased terror threat level for the Netherlands)

Actionable Information

Actionable information

The information is actionable in various ways and is used for:
a. (military) intelligence purposes, including smoke and mirror and additional infiltration operations
b. Disrupting and dismantling funding of terrorist organization for geo political purposes
c. Disrupting and dismantling the nexus terrorism organized crime for law enforcement purposes.
d. The total disruption and/or destruction in about 6 months 

Research and compiled by A. Lehal and F. Engelsman - for Ultrascan Humint - Dec 2018 - Jan 2019

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